Using a distribution over parameter values

• Start with a prior distribution over p. In this case we used a uniform distribution. • Multiply the prior probability of each parameter value by the probability of observing a head given that value. • Then scale up all of the probability densities so that their integral comes to 1. This gives the posterior distribution.

probability density

1

area=1

p

0

1

probability density

1

2

probability density

area=1