Some problems with picking the parameters
that are most likely to generate the data
• What if we only tossed the coin once and we got
1 head?
– Is p=1 a sensible answer?
• Surely p=0.5 is a much better answer.
• Is it reasonable to give a single answer?
– If we don’t have much data, we are unsure
about p.
–  Our computations of probabilities will work
much better if we take this uncertainty into
account.