Georgios Chalkiadakis and Craig Boutilier
"Bayesian Reinforcement Learning for Coalition Formation Under Uncertainty"
To appear in AAMAS 2004
Research on coalition formation usually assumes the values of potential coalitions to be known with certainty. Furthermore, settings in which agents lack sufficient knowledge of the capabilities of potential partners is rarely, if ever, touched upon. We remove the aforementioned - often unrealistic - assumptions and propose a model that utilizes Bayesian (multiagent) reinforcement learning in order to enable participating agents to reduce their uncertainty regarding coalitional values and opponents' capabilities. In addition, we introduce the Bayesian Core, a new stability concept for coalition formation under uncertainty. Preliminary experimental evidence demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach.